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Tennis Betting – Tips For Exchange depending on Tennis Matches

By choosing tennis as your preferred sport for betting, you’ve got already given yourself an “edge” against those that back or offer odds on other sports. To use this “edge” to form money consistently, however, you will need to know two fundamental principles first. Then apply the facility of mathematics.

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Principle #1

It is sheer folly to put a tennis bet (or a back anything) with a “traditional” bookmaker. The expression “You can’t beat the bookie” is axiomatic; you only cannot beat the bookie over time. It’s because the chances are always mathematically calculated in favour of the bookmaker. Everyone knows (or should know) that the bookie’s mathematical “edge” against the punter is important for him to form a profit in order that he can stay in business.

Computer technology has given rise to a replacement sort of betting, referred to as “exchange betting” or “matched betting”. With “betting exchanges” there’s no bookie to beat; in other words, there’s no middle-man. Every punter bets against another punter or punters somewhere out there within the Internet ether. Any punter (or “trader”) can place a “back” bet that a player or team will win, and/or place a “lay” bet that a player or team will lose. Thus, any punter can prefer to act as a standard bettor and/or as a bookmaker.

With exchange betting the chances aren’t set by a third-party or middle-man; they’re set by the punters themselves, who place requests for odds at which they’re prepared to put bets (if they want to act as a standard bettor), or place offers of odds at which they’re prepared to get bets (if they want to act as a bookmaker).

As the “back” bettors gradually lower their requested odds and therefore the “lay” bettors gradually raise their offered odds, the software on the exchange betting internet site matches all the rear bets with all the lay bets at the moment they coincide. The accounts of the “backers” or “layers” are then credited with their winnings automatically a couple of seconds after the top of the event consistent with its result.

Obviously, the technology for providing such a “fair” betting service must be purchased somehow. This payment is taken within the sort of a commission on the punter’s net winnings on an occasion (or “market”). That is, commission is charged only on any positive difference between winnings and losses on an equivalent event.

This betting system is as on the brink of a wonderfully fair betting environment because it is feasible to realize .

There are only a few betting exchanges alive , however, perhaps because the exchange betting software is so complex and thus costly. the enormous among exchange betting internet sites is Betfair, with about 90% of the market at the time of writing. Others are the worldwide Betting Exchange (BetDAQ), ibetX, Betsson, Matchbook and therefore the World Bet Exchange (WBX). Betfair is far and away the foremost popular because it had been the primary to supply this “perfectly fair” betting environment, and is trusted to perform accurately and instantly.

Principle #2

So, why does tennis betting offer you that “edge” over depending on other sports? the solution , though simple, is usually overlooked even by those that bet tennis regularly. And if you’re someone who’s never back tennis, you’d almost never have realized the importance of the tennis rating system on the betting.

Consider this fundamental difference between the tennis rating system which of probably the other sport you’ll consider .

In other sports and games the trailing player or team must structure the points gap by winning some extent for each point they need already lost so as to catch up to the leader. Only then can they begin to maneuver ahead. This fact seems obvious.

In tennis, however, the trailing player or team can lose the primary set 6-0 (possibly with a deficit of 24 points). That team can then win the second set by the foremost narrow of margins, 7-6 during a tie-break, winning the set by only a few points (or even by winning fewer points than the opponents, a rare but possible occurrence!).

As soon because the trailing player or team wins the second set, the 2 sides suddenly have even scores, albeit one player or team may need actually won more points than the opponents.

This anomaly often features a profound psychological effect on one or each side , which affects the way they play for subsequent jiffy , and thus also the odds requested and offered by punters on the match. This, however, is another aspect of tennis betting which can be the topic of another article. this text deals with the mathematical aspect of tennis betting and the way to win money with this data .

How to win at tennis betting

Now that you’re conscious of these two fundamental principles, how are you able to use them to your advantage when making tennis bets?

The key’s to not be just a “backer” or a “layer”, simply depending on the ultimate outcome of an occasion . If you are doing that, you’ll lose out over time, because there’s always alittle difference between the “back” odds and therefore the “lay” odds — there must be, otherwise there’d be no incentive for anyone to supply odds and there’d be no betting in the least . Combine that with the commission you pay on your net winnings, and therefore the “edge” is against you mathematically (although it’s not as great like conventional bookmakers).

The secret to winning at tennis betting is to be BOTH a “backer” AND a “layer”, but at different points during the event. this is often another aspect of betting that distinguishes the exchange betting internet site from the normal bookie. At the betting exchange you’ll place a back or lay bet at any time during the event, right up until the previous second or the ultimate point. this is often referred to as “in-play” betting.

Because in-play betting is allowed, the chances for every opposing side change because the event progresses, consistent with the likelihood (as perceived by the punters) of either one side or the opposite being the eventual winner. The trick is to put a back back one side at certain odds and later place a lay back that side (or a back back the opposite side) at better odds as fortunes change and therefore the odds swing in your favour. If you’ll achieve this, you’ll win your bet overall, no matter the result of the event — a real “win-win” scenario.

Why back tennis and not on other sports?

Apart from Principle #2, explained earlier, tennis is right for such “swing” betting, because the chances fluctuate after every point is played. There are therefore very many small swings to at least one side then to the opposite . this does not happen in soccer, for instance , because goals are so rare and a goal shifts the advantage suddenly and hugely to the scoring side.

Furthermore, a match can have one among only two results; there are often no draw or tie; and one among only two players or teams can win. In racing , for instance , the winner can come from an outsized number of runners.

The more possible outcomes there are to factor into the equation, the harder it’s to win. (Despite this obvious logic, soccer and racing remain the 2 hottest sports for betting, probably for historical reasons. Tennis is already third in popularity, however, as more and more punters discover the very fact that it’s easier to form money depending on tennis than on the other sport.)

“In-play” betting or “pre-event” betting?

Now that you simply have — it’s hoped — understood and absorbed the generalities of exchange betting and therefore the peculiarities of tennis scoring, it’s time to elucidate the small print of how you’ll win at tennis betting.

Earlier it had been stated that the key to winning at tennis betting is to be both a “backer” and a “layer”, but at different points during the event, placing bets at different times during the event as fortunes change and therefore the odds swing in your favour. this will be through with both “in-play” betting and “pre-event” betting.

One method used with in-play betting is named “scalping”. As its name suggests, scalping involves skimming a small profit by backing or laying at precisely the right moment because the odds move slightly in your favour, perhaps when one player scores two or three consecutive points, and repeating the method again and again. the most important drawback of scalping is that it’s very time-consuming and fraught with mental and physical tension. Not only must you pay full attention to what’s happening during the match by live video broadcast, but you want to also catch precisely the right moments at which to bet, which is, in fact, made impossible by the 5-second delay imposed by the exchange betting software between the time you place the bet and therefore the time it’s accepted.

We’re not elaborating on this here because, as stated previously, this text is about winning by mathematics, not by the sweat of your brow. The maths aspect involves betting, not during the event, but before the event starts. That is, pre-event betting.

Mathematics don’t lie!

There are a couple of tennis betting “systems”, some purely manual, others using software programs, a number of which are enormously complicated. From the investigations of the author (a mathematician), all of them require the input, at some point, of a “probability factor” by the bettor. This probability factor is typically the chances at which you would like your “balancing” bet (the “lay” back the “backed” side or the “back” back the opposing side) to be triggered, supplying you with the “win-win” scenario mentioned earlier.

So, how does one determine the worth of this probability factor? That, dear reader, is that the crucial point of the entire matter, the linch-pin that holds any exchange betting “system” together and determines whether it succeeds or fails, whether you win or lose.

Up to now, it seems, this probability factor has had to be determined by the sheer experience of a couple of seasoned professional gamblers, or by trial-and-error guesswork by lesser mortals. Little wonder that numerous punters lose or don’t win the maximum amount as they might because they are doing not know the precise value needed to optimize their bets!

Accuracy is of paramount importance when determining the probability factor, so as to maximise the probabilities of winning consistently. an enquiry on the online for a tool to calculate it proved negative. the author therefore created one that encompasses not only all aspects of exchange betting but also the peculiarities of the tennis rating system , and called it the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator, for want of a far better name. The probability factor is calculated to 2 decimal places, merely by entering the pre-event odds of both opposing sides, and has enabled the author to form consistently quite 10% take advantage of tennis betting since Wimbledon 2009.

As a parallel test, the author also placed bets consistent with “gut feeling”, in sufficient numbers to determine a trend. It resulted during a loss of 10% of the capital (or “bank”).

Other tests were done, using the Abacus Exchange Betting Calculator, by depending on other sports where small odds swings occur, like American football , snooker and darts (very long matches only, otherwise the swings are too large). The results here almost covered the commissions paid on winnings; so, it’s not worthwhile.

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It seems, then, that the actual mathematical formula or algorithm (which is extremely complex) discussed here works well only in conjunction with the unique rating system of tennis.

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